By Winston Muleba II
El Niño, according to Care International, is a meteorological trend that causes abnormally warm water to spread over the Pacific Ocean's surface. Worldwide weather patterns are influenced and altered by the interaction of winds and ocean currents. Reduced rainfall and dryness are the main results. El Niño and La Niña often follow each other, bringing severe weather to the same areas that El Niño has already severely damaged. Usually, it is connected to rainfall that is above normal. It may help with water shortages, but in some places it can also lead to floods. The rainy season is when floods happen, especially in December and January when heavy precipitation events are most frequent. Riverine floods and flash floods are both dangerous. In 2009–2010, 238,258 people were reported to have been impacted by flash floods and water logging brought on by periods of high precipitation.
The
International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC) also describes
El Niño as a cyclical climatic phenomenon that is characterized by extremely
high ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and according to Mugiyo, a
Zimbabwean scholar; it has a significant influence on weather patterns
globally. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which may occur during the El
Niño, La Nia, or neutral phase, is one of the components, according to Mugiyo adding
that vegetation patterns and inter-annual agricultural output variability,
which varies across crop kinds and areas, are altered by ENSO's influence on
local agro-climate parameters. ENSO, on the other hand, is a naturally
occurring climate phenomenon that causes surface waters in the central and
eastern Pacific to become unusually warm; this causes changes in global weather
patterns that lead to extreme weather events like drought, flooding, and
storms.
Mugiyo
further highlights that El Niño events typically result in decreased rainfall
and extended dry periods in southern Africa, which pose serious challenges to
the region's rural populations and agriculture sector. Water shortages might
limit plantings and yields, which would have cumulative negative effects on
ultimate output, especially in countries where drier-than-average weather
conditions influence the whole crop cycle.
It
is no secret, Zambia is among the nations in the agricultural belt that is
susceptible to the negative impacts of El Niño, and it has already seen these
phenomena. As such, Anticipatory measures must be taken considering the
prognosis for El Niño in the southern Africa region.
Last
year, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicated that El Niño and La
Niña episodes alternate with each other; It lasts for nine to twelve months and
happens every two to seven years on average. Because El Niño has a gradual
start, predictable pattern, and may be forecast months in advance, it is
feasible to plan ahead and prepare emergency reactions and anticipatory steps. After
a three-year La Niña period that delivered the opposite extremes to impacted
areas, including severe drought in the Horn of Africa, the current El Niño is
directly following it.
Meanwhile,
Catholic Relief Services (CRS) views El Niño as a normal occurrence that occurs
naturally, and scientists concur that the unprecedented intensity of this
year's El Niño is caused by rising ocean surface temperatures—which have
climbed by more than 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit. El Niño is one of the current
weather patterns that may be amplified by climate change. Though its effects
can be predicted by climate models, the World Food Programme (WFP) notes that
El Niño is linked to a late start to the season, insufficient rainfall, and
uneven distribution in Southern Africa, which primarily results in notable dry
spells.
According
to His Excellency the Republican President of Zambia, Mr Hakainde Hichilema, in
a statement, 84 districts in Lusaka, Central, Copperbelt eastern,
north-western, western, and southern provinces have been severely affected by
the prolonged dry spell this season, causing immense destruction. This is due
to the ongoing El Niño phenomenon. A Scholar Thurlow et al. adds that droughts and dry periods happen even more often
than floods, with AER1 being the country's most drought-prone area. El Niño has
a significant impact on livelihoods and food security and may last for many
years.
Previously,
Zambia was severely affected by the greatest drought, which occurred in
1991–1992, between 1976 and 2007. As to Thurlow et al., there were also
smaller-scale droughts in 1986-2018, 1994-1995, 2004-2005, and 2017-2018.
Following protracted droughts in the country's south and west in 2017–2018, the
national government and humanitarian organizations warned that Zambia was
experiencing one of its worst droughts ever in 2019 and 2020. In December of
2019, the UN OCHA issued a warning, estimating that more than 2.3 million
people would be food insecure by March 2020. The nation is suffering from the
cumulative effects of severe floods that have happened on top of these droughts.
El Niño is also linked to smaller planted areas; delayed planting and low
yields will result in a major reduction in the amount of food available.
The
Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) recognize that the El Niño
climatic phenomenon, which is typified by rising sea surface temperatures, has
affected weather patterns. By virtue of the Disaster Management Act No. 13 of
2010, DMMU is in charge of national humanitarian coordination and response in Zambia.
By way of the National Disaster Management Council, DMMU carries out its
obligations. UN agencies, sector-specific Ministries, and CSO partners make up
the National Disaster Technical Committee/Forum (NDMCF), which is positioned
below this. Province-wide Management Committees and district-level District
Coordination Committees are the relevant organizational structures. At the
first meeting of the NDMCF on November 22, 2023, the emergency clusters were
activated and the 2023/2024 National Multi Hazard Contingency Plan for Zambia
was presented. There are eleven clusters in all, which are: agriculture, food
security, administration of housing and camps, education, health, nutrition,
protection, logistics and transportation, WASH, and coordination. WASH,
Nutrition, and Education are three of the eleven clusters that UNICEF co-leads.
Realistically,
El Niño has caused drier and warmer conditions in the southern half of the
country, according to DMMU, which has negatively impacted agricultural
activities due to reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells and last year, the
Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) predicted that during the October,
November, and December (OND) period, normal to below normal rainfall is
expected over Luapula, Northern, Muchinga, Lusaka, Central, and Copperbelt
provinces, including Lundazi, Chama, Kaoma, Kabompo, and Kalabo districts). For
the Southern, Western, parts of the Northwestern, and Eastern provinces,
including the Mansa and Mpika districts, average to above-normal rainfall is
anticipated during this time. November, December, and January (NDJ): Most of
the eastern half of Zambia, including Kabompo District in Northwestern
Province, are projected to get average to below-normal rainfall during this
time. In the southern, western, Northwestern, and northern regions of Luapula
and Muchinga provinces, including Mumbwa District, average to above-normal
rainfall is probably expected. In the provinces of Lusaka, Central, Choma,
Petauke, Nyimba, Mbala, Zambezi, Kabompo, Chembe, Milenge, and Mansa districts,
as well as the Copperbelt, normal to below average rainfall is predicted for
December, January, and February (DJF). ZMD indicated that most of the provinces
in the Eastern, Muchinga, Northern, Luapula, Southern, Western, and
Northwestern regions are predicted to get normal to above normal rainfall.
January, February, and March (JFM) are the final months of the season. Most of
Zambia is expected to get normal to above-normal rainfall, with the exception
of the districts of Ikelenge, Mwinilunga, Mpika, Kasama, Livingstone, Mazabuka,
Monze, Kafue, and Siavonga, which will likely see normal to below-average
rainfall.
Based on the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) early July, 2023
announcement of El Niño conditions, the most recent projections indicate that
there is a more than 80 percent probability that El Niño conditions will
persist through March–May 2024. Based on data from the National Oceanic
Atmospheric Administration's Weather Prediction Center and Climate Hazards
Center, Santa Barbara, the intensity is projected to be equivalent to the top
six strongest occurrences in recorded history. Depending on the particular
anomalies in sea surface temperature and atmospheric behavior, as well as how
El Niño interacts with other climatic phenomena like the Indian Ocean Dipole,
the extent of its impact on precipitation varies significantly each time. The
predicted positive Indian Ocean Dipole state in late 2023, which tends to
intensify El Niño's influence on weather in many locations, is especially
concerning this year.
Based
on projections, food insecurity in Zambia is predicted to deteriorate between
October 2023 and March 2024. An additional 22 districts in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis)
would bring the total number of hotspot districts to 67. In order to close food
gaps, safeguard and reestablish livelihoods, and avoid acute malnutrition
during the lean season, it is anticipated that 2.04 million people, or 23
percent of the population under analysis, will be classified as being in a
crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above).
To
determine the effect of El Niño on cultivated fields, the government, via the
DMMU, sent assessment teams into the field to take an overhead look and make
spontaneous visits to a few farms. A team of technocrats from DMMU, the
Ministry of Agriculture, the Zambia Meteorological Department, and the Zambia
Air Force led by Dr. Gabriel Pollen, the National Coordinator of DMMU, was
conducting an assessment exercise in the field. Siazongo Siakalenge, the Deputy
Secretary to the Cabinet for Finance and Economic Development, was also part of
the team. The majority of the agricultural fields that the team visited had
stressed crops, and farmers in the Southern Province's districts of Monze, Choma,
Gwembe, Sinazongwe, and Namwala were pleading with the government to step in
and guarantee family food security for the next growing season. Roughly one
million hectares of the 2.2 million hectares of corn that are projected to be
planted nationwide have been damaged.
In
a recent statement, President Hichilema indicated that El Niño has had an
equivalent impact on the energy sector, which is predicted to have an
electrical shortfall of around 430 megawatts by December 2024, with the
possibility of exceeding 520 megawatts. The present state of drought has also
impacted the supply of surface and ground water, pasture for animals and
wildlife, and has the potential to worsen illness and human-animal conflict.
The nation was already dealing with issues like the cholera epidemic and the
COVID-19 pandemic, which are made worse by the drought. Resources that were
originally meant to accelerate social and economic growth are being diverted in
this way.
According
to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), El Niño-induced drought in 2023
could have an impact on the performance of the main agricultural season between
October 2023 and March 2024 in Southern Africa, including Zambia. This is
especially true for countries and regions that experienced below-average cereal
production in 2022–2023 due to climate extremes (cyclones). Water stress might
have a negative impact on agricultural production in the 2023–2024 seasons on
crops in nations where dry weather are predicted. Additionally, a drought may
cause an increase in disease outbreaks and pests of plants and animals. Previously,
an estimated 32 million people in Southern Africa were impacted by the El
Niño-induced drought in 2015–2016.
With a record 258 million people facing severe hunger and just 20% of the
finances required to provide food security assistance to the most vulnerable. Sufficed
to indicate that El Niño-induced climatic hazards represent a serious threat to
food security in Zambia and beyond; its effects might potentially influence
several nations that are now dealing with humanitarian issues in the next weeks
and months.
Other
statistics show that ENSO occurrences have the potential to have a negative
influence on agriculture and food security, resulting in considerable hardship
for people as well as financial loss. Over 60 million people were negatively impacted
by the El Niño event in 2015–2016, which led 23 countries to request USD 5
billion in international humanitarian aid, according to FAO. Sadly, El Niño's
effects go beyond food hardship. It has an effect on water, sanitation,
hygiene, health, and education.
And
according to WFP, the situation is exacerbated by persistent outbreaks of
infectious diseases like cholera and economic shocks. Technically, high
consequences on food security are anticipated in 2023–2024, particularly in
regions currently experiencing results from the Integrated Food Security Phase
Classification (IPC) Phase 3 and above. Food insecurity that results from this
might have a negative impact on the nutritional health of vulnerable
populations, such as children, women who are pregnant or nursing, and the
elderly. Furthermore, lower outputs may have a price spillover effect and raise
local inflationary pressures if there were significant production interruptions
in the key producing nations. This implies that because of reduced yields and
decreased agricultural output, El Niño episodes have historically been linked
to an increase in food poverty. Thus, food costs have gone up globally as well
as on the African continent.
Particularly,
El Niño's drier weather may cause water stress, which lowers the amount of
water available for hydropower production, drinking water supply, and
agricultural uses. Additionally, provinces that are this dry are more
vulnerable to forest fires, which further jeopardize the stability of the
ecology in the area. Moreover, the agricultural industry is vulnerable to the
arrival of pests and illnesses during these times. As a result, families who
have already had consecutive shocks during the previous few years are more
vulnerable to further agricultural and animal losses and illnesses,
infrastructure problems, population shifts, and water-borne illnesses. This
includes cholera, which is already a significant cause for worry in some areas.
Cattle are frequently nutritionally challenged and under stress following a dry
spell, particularly when there is little time between droughts and floods. This
lowers immune system functioning and raises the risk of diseases. Regrettably,
Zambia has been experiencing a serious cholera outbreak since October 18, 2023.
The nation reported 18, 514 instances as of January 29, 2024, with 643
fatalities recorded. This led to a very high CFR of 4%. All 10 of Zambia's
provinces have been impacted by the epidemic, with Lusaka (15 111), Central
(1169), Southern (447), and Copperbelt (392) provinces accounting for 93% of
the total cases. More over half of the fatalities occur in communal settings,
indicating a broad spread of transmission. According to the available
statistics, male adults—especially those between the ages of 25 and 34—have a
higher case incidence. Significantly, the elderly and very young had the
greatest death rates, with men over 55 having a particularly high CFR (>5%),
according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Moreover, the likelihood of
vector-borne illnesses is increased in damp environments. Furthermore, the FAO
predicts that floods will probably cause further population displacements.
Generally,
El Niño is predicted to have both positive and negative effects on agriculture
in 2024, which will have an influence on global food supply and access. In
contrast to East Africa, where gains are anticipated, food security is more
likely to suffer in southern Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
WFP
warns that 333 million people were estimated to be severely food insecure in
2023; the number is expected to rise in 2024 due to newly emerged and ongoing
conflicts, the effects of climate change, inflation in food prices, and the
detrimental effects of El Niño-related hazards on agricultural production, food
prices, and livelihoods. It is therefore, important to acknowledge that El
Niño's effects are not uniform across the countries; in the western regions of
Ethiopia and Kenya, as well as in the Sudan and south Sudan. During this rainy
season, El Niño is linked to below-average precipitation.
However,
in an effort to mitigate the effects of El Niño, President Hichilema has
instructed the relevant government branch to provide more funds for
humanitarian aid, guaranteeing that our impacted countrymen will not go hungry.
In order to discourage residents from burning brush, the President also ordered
the importation of more power, the imposition of energy consumption
restrictions, and the promotion of alternative energy sources. In order to
reduce the shortfall, His Excellency also reaffirmed that the government will
continue to get more maize and other foods. In order to boost food production,
President Hichilema also gave the armed forces of Zambia instructions to build
irrigation systems.
Additionally, the President said that the Food Reserve Agency would improve
sales to the most vulnerable members of the community and collaborate closely
with the DMMU to provide purchaseable Maize to the communities. In the Long term, the Republican President
declared that Government would concentrate on improving water harvesting
mechanisms to support irrigation and productivity improvements; specifically,
aggressively increasing investment in water harvesting, genetics, and
technology to support irrigation and other irrigation development.
Meanwhile,
Zambia National Service (ZNS) has deployed equipment in Lusaka and other areas
to unblock drainage systems and de-flood some affected houses as part of
contributions to the government's efforts to arrest the rising cases of cholera
in Lusaka. The disaster and emergency are serious, and the government is
responding urgently and with the utmost dedication. A number of homes in a few
specific areas in Lusaka West were recently flooded, putting the locals at
danger of contracting cholera, a pandemic that has already taken a great number
of lives.
ABOUT THE WRITER
Winston
Muleba is a Zambian youth and professionally gravitates towards disaster risk
reduction, project management, environmental sustainability and agriculture
matters as he is skilled at juxtaposing the latest research and expert opinion
with the everyday lives and struggles of people on the ground. He holds a Master’s
degree in Project Planning Management and Bachelor of Science in Natural Resources.
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