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Monday 17 April 2017

Inadequate assessments of impact of potential natural hazards on Zambia’s network infrastructures: Gateway to compromised vital societal functions

By Winston Muleba JR 
Recent flood events and other natural hazards in many parts of the country, but also elsewhere have shown that network infrastructures are vulnerable and that damages to them affect large areas over a period of time. 

The network infrastructures get affected by natural hazards which are caused by hydrometeorological, climatological, geophysical and biological phenomena which adversely impact on the natural and built environment of affected areas. 

Studies have consistently presented forecasts and demonstrations of an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. 

Natural hazards effect in terms of victims and material damage often exceed the capacity for self-recovery of local communities, making external assistance necessary; they cause considerable damage to infrastructures from time to time and cause widespread disruption to transportation, leading to significant repair costs to road controlling authorities, access difficulties for emergency services, and disruption to road users and the community at large. 

Every year, different parts in Zambia are affected by hazards such as storms, floods or landslides. 

The impact of these hazards on network infrastructure varies depending on the severity. 

Network infrastructures are crucial structural elements in areas that provide different services and ensure the transport of people and goods which if disrupted or destroyed, would have a serious impact on the health, safety, security or economic wellbeing of Citizens or the effective functioning of society; they are necessary for ensuring that the general objective of the network is reached. 

Distinguishing two types of major network infrastructures: transport networks and technical networks. 

Transport network infrastructures ensure the transportation of people and goods, such as roads and railways. 

Technical network infrastructures ensure the production, processing and/or distribution, collection of services, resources, for example, electricity, gas, information, water and wastewater. 

Floods are among the most destructive natural hazard worldwide and the damage they cause is regrettable in many instances; flooding continue to wreak havoc in some aspects of Zambia with houses falling in some places while some roads have been washed away. 

Research suggests that most flooding is caused by high intensity rainfall which produces high velocity flows at some stage during the flooding event. 

These flows may reduce in velocity as the flooding recedes. Citing a few examples, recently, a section of the Maamba-Batoka Road in Southern province got washed away approximately 43 kilometers from Batoka. 

This happened between Batoka and Sinazeze about 5km from Batoka. Sinazongwe District was therefore cut off from the rest of the Country after a Sikanungu Bridge connecting Batoka to Sinazeze got washed away. 

Country Police did not hesitate to appeal to all (users) motorists and members of the public to find other alternatives as the road was completely cut off. 

And Road Development Agency (RDA) Director for Communications and Corporate Affairs, Loyce Saili attributed the damage to heavy rains and flash floods experienced in the area. 

Ms. Saili stated that traffic from Maamba and Sinazongwe got cut off from the rest of Southern and Lusaka Provinces and motorists were advised to avoid using the Maamba-Batoka Road until it is re-connected. 

She added that RDA dispatched engineers to conduct a thorough assessment of the damage to ascertain the appropriate intervention to be put in place. 

Ms. Saili explained that the Agency worked closely with Maamba Collieries to reconnect the affected section.

She further said a bailey bridge was mounted as a medium term solution. 

It is important to stress that from this and other flood disaster incidents, it is believed that the functioning of network infrastructure is crucial to the functioning of an area, given that (temporary) failure has the potential to cause social disruption (casualties/economic loss/recovery or independence). 

And the newly tarred Luangwa D145 main road connecting the District to the Great East Road has developed serious cracks posing a threat that the District might be cut off from the rest of the country and also posing a danger to motorists. 

Luangwa District council Chairman, Austin Bota and some members of the District Joint Security Committee who visited the damaged portion which is about 5KM from the Great East Road on the D145 Luangwa main road in Mankhokwe ward were surprised at the damage done on the road which left only one lane passable. 

Mr Bota could not believe the damage done on the road fearing that the District might be cut off from the Great East road. 

The cracks which started very small had developed to big cracks and there was fear that they would extend to the remaining lane of the road. 

Locals living near the affected area told the Council Chairman that the cracks which were noticed after heavy rains which hit the area were expanding almost every hour and also expressed concern at the falling rocks from a hill near the road which have rolled on the road. 

Meanwhile Luangwa Police Officer In–Charge, Assistant Superintendent, Muleta Mataa called on police officers at Luangwa Bridge and Chitope to monitor the spot and guide motorists to avoid accidents. 

And Ms Saili of RDA confirmed to ZNBC news that the agency dispatched a team of engineers to access the damage, adding that the agency advised road users travelling to and from Feira not to use the road as their safety couldn’t be guaranteed because the structural integrity of the road was compromised. 

She said the agency instructed the contractor China Geo to mobilize to site to help in remedy the situation. 

As it were, the country has limited guidelines for setting levels of service or performance measures for roads which are subject to natural hazard events. 

As a result, roads which are subject to natural hazard events have been managed mainly reactively, which has led to high ongoing expenditure in terms of damage costs, disruption costs and adverse effects to the community. 

Recently, about 4,000 new Kitwe residents who had built houses along the Kafue River were cut off and were not accessing health and education facilities after the collapse of the ‘council farm bridge’ near Bulangililo following heavy rains that led to the bursting of Kafue River. 

However, the residents who conduct business in Bulangililo were forced to cross the flooded bridge as there were no other alternative. 

And this year, Kafue Hook Bridge along the main Lusaka-Mongu road got flooded due to unprecedented water levels in the Kafue National Park, posing a great danger to the travelling public. 

But Infrastructure and Housing Minister Ronald Chitotela told Parliament that Government was hastily opening a temporal bridge which had been constructed alongside the old bridge to deal with the crisis after the water levels in the park exceeded the historical flood level at the Kafue Hook Bridge site. 

In view of this year’s natural disasters across the country, it is believed that inadequate assessments of negative impact of natural hazards on Zambia’s network infrastructures is the gateway to compromised vital societal functions but some sections of society suggests that there has been a general shift of focus in risk modeling away from hazard impacts towards the determination and calculation of risk, which incorporates information on vulnerability and exposure of network infrastructures. 

Many research reports indicate that the compilation of the infrastructures at risk such as roads, buildings, population, societal functions, the economic system, the traditional and the cultural heritage is challenging because it is made up of many interactive infrastructures and also because there is no organized “exposure” community, as there is for various hazards, that specifically focuses on exposure.  

And Interviews exploring people’s views suggest that the extent to which infrastructures at risk can withstand the impact of the hazard - is even more difficult to quantify. 

The concept of vulnerabilities may change according to infrastructures at risk that is taken into consideration to estimate exposure. For example, the vulnerability of the economic system will be different and measured differently from that of the building stock. 

According to a report on ‘global modeling of natural hazard risks’, “vulnerabilities of the infrastructure at risk may change over time during the disaster cycle and also if faced with multiple coinciding. 

Quantitative vulnerability data are available only to a limited extent, and only for certain infrastructures at risk such as physical vulnerabilities for the building stock or specific infrastructures, or vulnerabilities of an economic system. 

There is a real demand to include infrastructures such as resilience or social vulnerability in risk assessments. 

Very few tools to measure resilience exist at present, notwithstanding the fact that there is not an internationally accepted definition of resilience.” 

 Other reports indicate that the scarcity and inconsistencies of vulnerability information often makes it the weakest link in a risk assessment. 

 While it may be argued that some aspects of vulnerability are not directly or readily quantifiable, more efforts should be made to identify and develop proxy measures, to reduce uncertainties and to consider time-dependency in order to improve assessments. 

 Meanwhile, concerned individuals allege that the gateway to compromised vital societal functions is hiring of Chinese contractors to put up network infrastructure not necessarily inadequate assessments of negative impact of natural hazards on Zambia’s network infrastructures adding that the cheap Contractors put up substandard network infrastructures. 

But research shows that multi-hazard risk assessment tools are currently in different stages of development, Zambia has not embraced them. 

 A number of publicly developed tools exist for which a certain amount of harmonization has been carried out, allowing for some comparability between hazards. 

 However, these models very rarely delve into the temporal, spatial or causal relationships that frequently occur between hazards, nor take into account the time-dependency or dynamic nature of vulnerability. 

 According to a 2010 World Bank & United Nations report, “disasters expose the cumulative effects of decisions (individual and collective) previously taken in terms of land management (including unregulated growth of urban areas), construction techniques, implementation of sanitation infrastructure and low investment in educational programs, poverty reduction and social integration, among others. 

Such decisions combined with high intensity natural events (e.g. floods, landslides, storms and earthquakes) provoke an array of socioeconomic and environmental impacts.” 

Though it is not humanly easy to adopt measures to eliminate the extreme phenomena which cause natural disasters, preventive planning is vital in mitigating impacts on socio-economic and environmental systems, particularly those which are the most vulnerable, as a way of increasing the degree of resilience of local communities. 

A thorough assessment of both positive and negative impact of natural hazards is fundamental in managing risks, and this should be the first step in a risk management of network infrastructures. 

Understanding network infrastructures and their operation under exceptional circumstances is fundamental for dealing with flood risks and improving the resilience of a territory. 

Government through the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU), City and Municipal Councils, Road Development Agency (RDA), Zambia National Service (ZNS) and other relevant authorities should work around the clock to ensure that a lasting solution to inadequate assessment of potential impacts of natural hazards on Zambia’s network infrastructures is implemented. 

Natural disasters should be approached from a trans-disciplinary perspective as their prevention and mitigation requires technical-scientific cooperation between different areas of science, engineering, economics, health, social stu dies and law.

Globally, greater attention and more proactive intervention is necessary (in terms of prevention planning) on the part of governments and NGOs, as set out by the World Bank & United Nations. 

It is anticipated that after Batoka–Maamba road and bridge disaster, network infrastructures will receive particular attention in terms of security. 

The increasing dependence of people and the economy on the services offered by network infrastructures places them at the centre of the functioning of contemporary society. 

The efficient operation of networks during crisis periods and their capacity to return to normal operation is fundamental to the society dependent on them. 

About the Author 
Winston Muleba Junior is a Citizen Journalist, Aquaculturist, Researcher, Writer and Disaster Management Practitioner who uses media and ICT to promote climate-smart agriculture; environmental conservation; science, technology and innovation. He gravitates towards environment, water, aquaculture and agriculture as he is skilled at juxtaposing the latest research and expert opinion with the everyday lives and struggles of people on the ground.
Email: mwenyamuleba@gmail.com

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